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FRIDAY,  MAY 21,  2010

A TRUE PARTY POOPER – AT 9:52 P.M. ET:  The Times Square plot, originally spun by the Obamans as one guy's little party, unrelated to the rest of the world, has turned into a catered affair.  From The Washington Post:

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN -- Pakistani authorities have detained the co-owner of an upscale catering company in the capital and at least four other men in connection with the Times Square bomb plot, a Pakistani intelligence official said Friday.

The U.S. Embassy issued a warning to Americans in Pakistan about Hanif Rajput Catering Service, saying that "terrorist groups may have established links" to it. The unusual alert said the company was owned by a father and son, but it did not elaborate on its alleged ties to militants.

A Pakistani intelligence source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the son, Salman Ashraf Khan, 35, was arrested about 10 days ago on suspicion of links to Faisal Shahzad, the Pakistani American accused of the attempted bombing in New York. Four or five other people were also arrested in Islamabad, including at least one who was a close friend of Khan's, the official said.

Hanif Rajput has catered elite events in the capital, including U.S. Embassy functions.

COMMENT:  Be careful of who comes popping out of the cake.  And don't light any candles.

May 21, 2010    Permalink

SUPPORT FOR HEALTH LAW UNHEALTHY – AT 9:17 P.M. ET:  Obama has simply been unable to sell support for Obamacare.  Americans can add two and two.  From The Politico: 

The White House has, for weeks now, rolled out popular health reform benefits well ahead of schedule, items like coverage for young adult children and tax credits for small business, hoping these early deliverables would shore up public support.

But a new poll, released this morning by the Kaiser Family Foundation, suggests the accelerated implementation schedule has failed to sway a skeptical public — or even keep health reform’s most ardent supporters on board.

Two months after the health care overhaul became law, Americans remain as deeply divided as ever about it, according to a new Kaiser Family Foundation poll released Friday.

While overall attitudes were roughly unchanged from last month, the percentage of people who reported that they have “very favorable” opinions of the legislation fell from 23 percent to 14 percent during the month. At the opposite end of the spectrum, 32 percent of people reported “very unfavorable” opinions, up slightly from the 30 percent reported last month.

The Health Tracking Poll found that 41 percent of respondents hold favorable views of the law and 44 percent hold unfavorable views, with 14 percent unsure. It’s a slight difference from last month’s poll, which found 46 percent had favorable opinions and 40 percent unfavorable.

COMMENT:  Americans have been talking to their doctors, to each other, to nurses – people who actually know something about heath care.  Obviously, the law's reviews have not been favorable enough to get people to buy tickets.  Twofers available.

May 21, 2010    Permalink

YOU JUST CAN'T GET RELIABLE MATERIALS THESE DAYS – AT 9:02 P.M. ET:  Apparently, a terrorist being watched by the U.S. has had a misfortune.  From Fox:

A man whom the U.S. described as a key figure in Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula accidentally blew himself up, U.S. military officials told Fox News.

The officials say Nayif Al-Qahtani was "messing with a bomb" when it went off. U.S. officials had been watching him, but Fox News' sources insist the U.S. had nothing to do with his death.

Al-Qahtani was "a vibrant guy linked to ongoing operations planning, and his death will have an impact," one official told Fox News.

An Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula newsletter was the first to announce his death a week after the United States put terror sanctions on him. The newsletter did not say when it happened but said Al-Qahtani died in Yemen's Abyan province in the south of the country.

COMMENT:  Just watch:  Attorney General Holder will now ask that other terrorists be covered by Obamacare and by full life insurance policies.  Part of "outreach," you know.

May 21, 2010     Permalink

OH, NOT AGAIN – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:  Rand Paul has opened his mouth once more.  That is unfortunate:

WASHINGTON – Kentucky's Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul criticized President Barack Obama's handling of the Gulf oil spill Friday as putting "his boot heel on the throat of BP" and "really un-American."

Paul's defense of the oil company came during an interview in which he tried to explain his controversial take on civil rights law, an issue that has overtaken his campaign since his victory in Tuesday's GOP primary.

"What I don't like from the president's administration is this sort of, 'I'll put my boot heel on the throat of BP,'" Rand said in an interview with ABC's "Good Morning America." "I think that sounds really un-American in his criticism of business."

COMMENT:  Huh?  You know, you listen to this guy and you almost feel sympathy for Obama.  Boot heel?  On the throat of dear, brotherly BP? 

Look, I'm as pro-business as the next guy, but BP has screwed up pretty badly in the Gulf – it had no emergency plan in place – and portraying this British oil giant as a victim isn't exactly what a sane candidate should be doing.  Even hardened oil people are cursing BP for the way it's handled the spill.

Rand Paul proves, at least twice a day, why he should never have been the GOP candidate for the Senate in Kentucky.  He may pull it out in November, but who in the Senate will want to go near him? 

May 21, 2010     Permalink

UNBELIEVABLE – AT 9:25 A.M. ET:  It's the same old story with the Obama brigades.  They talk tough one day, then you look at the fine print and see Neville Chamberlain at work, with the umbrella hanging in the corner.

The great defense reporter, Bill Gertz, reports on the latest outrage:

A draft U.N. resolution that would impose sanctions on Iran, including limits on global arms transfers, will not block the controversial transfer of Russian S-300 missiles to the Iranian military, according to U.S. and Russian officials.

And the S-300 is the ball game.  With that in place in Iran, it would essentially checkmate any Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, and would make an American strike vastly more costly. 

The Obama administration had opposed the S-300 sale because the system is highly effective against aircraft and some missiles. The CIA has said the S-300 missiles, which have been contracted by Tehran but not delivered, will be used to defend Iranian nuclear facilities.

A key provision in the resolution made public this week states that all U.N. member states will agree to block sales or transfers of weapons. It lists tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, combat aircraft, warships and "missiles or missile systems as defined for the purpose of the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms."

A close reading of the missile section of the register defines those included in the ban as missiles and launchers for guided rockets, and ballistic and cruise missiles, and missile-equipped remotely piloted vehicles. However, the register states that the missile system category "does not include ground-to-air missiles," such as anti-aircraft missiles and anti-missile interceptors like the S-300.

The State Department conceded the point:

Asked about S-300s, a senior State Department official said the draft "would not impose a legally binding obligation not to transfer S-300 to Iran" since the register does not cover defensive missiles.

State said that the Russians had shown restraint in not transferring the S-300 to Iran.  In other words, we're depending on continued Russian good will.

On this the safety of the nation depends.  Once again, our "diplomacy" has fallen way short.

And get this, reported by Andrew Malcolm in the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog today:

President Obama has decided to pre-announce to the world once-secret American ballistic missile tests and satellite launches.

The Democratic administration's goal is to show a friendlier face to other countries and to coax Russia to do the same.

It's part of a confidence-boosting initiative launched, so to speak, last fall when Obama suddenly abandoned the U.S. missile-defense system in Eastern Europe that had exercised the Russians, though it was aimed at potential future missiles from Iran.

Obama hoped such a unilateral U.S. forfeiture would encourage Russia to put pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear weapons development. So far no good on that.

COMMENT:  Don't you feel noble and clean?  Don't you just feel so good about yourself?  Why, you're part of Obama nation.

Recently, in another "gesture," the United States announced in detail how many nuclear warheads we have.  Please note that no other country has responded by doing the same.  Moscow essentially ignored our announcement.

May 21, 2010     Permalink

BLAIR GOES – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:  Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair has been forced out of his position, once again throwing the intelligence "community" into chaos.  From the Washington Times:

Dennis C. Blair, the president's most senior intelligence adviser, became the first high-profile departure from President Obama's national security team on Thursday.

Mr. Blair, director of national intelligence, announced his resignation, effective May 28 in a five-sentence statement that ended with praise for the national intelligence bureaucracy he will no longer command. "Keep it up - I will be cheering for you," he said.

A U.S. official in a position to know said, "We have been interviewing several strong candidates to be his replacement."

Among the candidates are former Deputy Defense Secretary John J. Hamre, now president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies; retired Air Force Lt. Gen. James R. Clapper, the deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence; and Michael G. Vickers, a former CIA official and currently the Pentagon's assistant secretary of defense for special operations.

The reality is that Blair never quite mastered the political arts of a high-ranking civilian officeholder.  He is a former Navy admiral.  Whether deserved or not, his departure, apparently requested in a phone call from Obama himself, will add to the portrayal of an intelligence system that is permanently broken.  Enemies are observing. 

We were lucky with the Christmas-day bomber, whose bomb, aboard an airliner in flight, failed to ignite.  We were lucky in Times Square.  We weren't lucky at Fort Hood.  The fear, of course, is that there will be more Ford Hoods, possibly with massively powerful weapons.

A replacement should be named quickly.  Then his or her background must be thoroughly vetted.  What we don't need is some politically correct water carrier. 

May 21, 2010     Permalink

PRIMARY DAMAGE – AT 8:19 A.M. ET:  In a strange way, it's good news.  Republicans are waking up to the reality that November may not quite be the pushover that some had assumed. 

The left-wing Dems are not playing dead.  Voters are not loving the GOP more than they did before, and wavering Dem voters seem to be drifting back to their rotting roots.  Maybe this is the spur the Republicans need to get moving.

In Pennsylvania, newly anointed Democratic Senate candide Joe Sestak, who slew Arlen Specter on Tuesday, has jumped into the lead over Republican Pat Toomey.  From RCP:

Coming off a high-profile, successful Democratic Senate primary against Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak now finds himself leading Republican Pat Toomey in the general election, a new Rasmussen poll finds (May 19, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). On May 6, before both won their respective primaries Tuesday, Toomey held a 2-point lead.

Sestak 46
Toomey 42
Und 9

The post-primary bounce for Sestak is partly explained by his increasing support among Democrats, 80% of whom now back him (it was 64% two weeks ago). Toomey's support among Republicans did not change. Independents support Toomey by a 41%-32%.

Obama's approval rating is at 47%, with 52% disapproving.

COMMENT:  Now, this is a post-primary bounce.  Sestak has been in the news, and no longer has to divide favor with Specter.  But Pat Toomey, who must win in November, has work to do.  Pennsylvania is traditionally a blue state, although Republicans have sometimes won statewide.  This will be a tough, grueling fight with no result guaranteed. 

May 21, 2010      Permalink

THE PAUL PALL – AT 8:04 A.M. ET:  Anyone reading Urgent Agenda knows that we are not charter members of the Rand Paul Fan Club.  And, true to form, it didn't take long for Paul to get into trouble, after winning the Kentucky GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate.

Paul, with extreme dumbness, appeared on the Rachel Maddow program on MSNBC, a show that has an audience of six.  That was the first mistake.  Why, Rand?  Why?

He then fell into a trap marked TRAP! in big letters by answering a question designed to show that he was a racist.  He discussed his long-standing philosophical objections to parts of the 1964 civil rights law, one of the landmark pieces of legislation in American history, which passed only because Republicans supported it so strongly.

Now Paul has had to backtrack, essentially rejecting the very stand he took on the air.   The Washington Post reports:

"Let me be clear: I support the Civil Rights Act because I overwhelmingly agree with the intent of the legislation, which was to stop discrimination in the public sphere and halt the abhorrent practice of segregation and Jim Crow laws," he said.

That's nice.  But on the show he said:

Paul, who beat an establishment-backed candidate in Tuesday's GOP primary, appeared on MSNBC's "Rachel Maddow Show" and, in a long exchange with the liberal host, repeated his belief in a limited government that should not force private businesses to abide by civil rights law.

In other words, amateur at work.

I wish Republicans, or people who call themselves Republicans, would understand that playing the race card is a standard, almost ritualistic liberal practice.  If you are not with us, you must be a racist.  It's what they learned in college, assuming they went to one of the schools on the "approved" liberal list. 

While Paul will survive this, he is tainted.  Other Republicans immediately distanced themselves from his on-the-air views.  He's already intensely disliked by the GOP establishment.  And the press hasn't even begun to discuss his wacky foreign- and defense-policy views.

The controversy should shock anyone familiar with Rand and his father, Ron Paul.  But it is not helping the GOP cause for November, which requires reasonable unity, not distractions that the liberal media will gladly provide.

May 21, 2010    Permalink

THURSDAY,  MAY 20,  2010

ANOTHER FILM CLASSIC – AT 9:17 P.M. ET:  I know you'll want to order your tickets early:

BANDUNG, Indonesia (AP) - Young Barry Obama is struggling with his pingpong shot.

Or rather, 12-year-old Hasan Faruq Ali is struggling to play left-handed in imitation of the character he is portraying in a new Indonesian film, "Little Obama."

Are they thanking the academy already?  Actually, it sounds like a crime movie, like "Little Caesar."

The film tells the story of Obama's childhood in Jakarta, where he lived with his mother and Indonesian stepfather from age 6 to 10.

"It's about his friendships, his hobbies, just a childhood story," said screenwriter and co-director Damien Dematra. "It's not about politics, it's just the story of a boy."

Oh, of course it's not about politics.  Who could even think about politics?  Why, it's just like "Lassie."

The movie is taken from Dematra's book "Obama Anak Menteng"—"Obama, the Menteng Kid"—a fictionalized biography based on interviews with about 30 old friends and neighbors.

Wait, wait.  If you're going to do 30 interviews, why make it a fictionalized biography?  What part is fiction?  Will we be told?

Ready to be sick?  Do it now:

Dematra said he was a Hillary Rodham Clinton fan until he researched Obama.

"I just felt that this guy is an extraordinary person," Dematra said. "The reason I'm doing this is I want people around the world to know that Obama can become who he is because of his background in Indonesia. The different religions and races, the pressures that he had. I want the film to inspire people."

No, dork.  He can be who he is because he's an American.  You might note that we also have different religions and races.  We're not perfect, but we've done it better than anyone else. 

I'm sure the film will inspire people.  What they'll be inspired to do is a different matter altogether.

I'd rather see a rerun of "Casablanca."

May 20, 2010     Permalink

NORTH KOREA THREATENS – AT 7:41 P.M. ET:  North Korea has threatened war if South Korea retaliates for the north's sinking of a South Korean naval vessel:

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - Tensions deepened Thursday on the Korean peninsula as South Korea accused North Korea of firing a torpedo that sank a naval warship, killing 46 sailors in the country's worst military disaster since the Korean War.

President Lee Myung-bak vowed "stern action" for the provocation following the release of long-awaited results from a multinational investigation into the March 26 sinking near the Koreas' tense maritime border. North Korea, reacting swiftly, called the results a fabrication, and warned that any retaliation would trigger war. It continued to deny involvement in the sinking of the warship Cheonan.

"If the (South Korean) enemies try to deal any retaliation or punishment, or if they try sanctions or a strike on us .... we will answer to this with all-out war," Col. Pak In Ho of North Korea's navy told broadcaster APTN in an exclusive interview in Pyongyang.

An international civilian-military investigation team said evidence overwhelmingly proves a North Korean submarine fired a homing torpedo that caused a massive underwater blast that tore the Cheonan apart. Fifty-eight sailors were rescued from the frigid Yellow Sea waters, but 46 perished.

Since the 1950-53 war on the Korean peninsula ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty, the two Koreas remain locked in a state of war and divided by the world's most heavily armed border.
The truce prevents Seoul from waging a unilateral military attack.

COMMENT:  This is a growing crisis, to be watched carefully.  The South Koreans, and their American allies, must do something to punish North Korea for its attack – and the evidence pointing to North Korea is clear – but a failure to act decisively will be seen as weakness of the worst sort.

Retaliation doesn't have to be military.  It can be economic, diplomatic, sanctions, or other punishment.

My fear is that the White House, acting according to its usual pattern, will try to manage the dispute and calm it down, with North Korea receiving hardly a slap on the wrist.  It's the Obama way.  Let's see if he can break with his own bad habits.

May 20, 2010     Permalink

WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH – AT 7:27 P.M. ET:  Most foreign presidents who are invited to address a joint session of Congress go out of their way to be diplomatic.  Apparently, no one gave President Felipe Calderon of Mexico the protocol sheet.

Calderon said the usual nice things, then criticized Arizona's new illegal-immigration law, never conceding that immigration laws in Mexico are vastly more onerous. 

He then went on to link the rise in violence in Mexico directly to the lifting of the ban on the sale of assault weapons in the United States. 

This, of course, is absurd.  The drug dealers who get these assault weapons can get them from many places around the world.  If they get them from the U.S., the sales are illegal.  I doubt very much if reinstating the ban, which may or may not be a good idea, would do anything to deter illegal sales.

There may well be things we can do to help Mexico.  But I, for one, am tired of the great excuse machine.  Someone should ask President Calderon two questions:  1) Why can't Mexico, an oil-exporting country, develop enough of an economy to feed its people and make illegal immigration unnecessary, and 2) Why don't we have these same problems on the Canadian border? 

I doubt very much if these questions will be asked.  President Calderon is, in many respects, an admirable guy, and vastly preferable to the Chavez ally he defeated in the last Mexican election.  But we are not to blame for Mexico's internal problems.

May 20, 2010     Permalink

OBAMA SLIPS MORE IN RASMUSSEN POLL – AT 10:07 A.M. ET:  President Obama, in the last few months, made some gains in the Rasmussen survey, and appeared to be consolidating those gains.  But slippage has begun again:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16...

...Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove Those figures also reflect the weakest ratings for the president since the health care bill became law.

COMMENT:  Passion is the issue again.  The fact that 42% of likely voters strongly disapprove of the president's performance is just stunning.  Only 26% strongly approve, which is not very much above Obama's ethnic base. 

Of course, the president isn't on the ballot this November, and presidents have been far down before and snapped back for second-term victories.  But these numbers may, at least in part, explain why Mr. Obama seems to have so little impact on Democratic fortunes in voting held so far this year.

May 20, 2010     Permalink

THE GOP KAMIKAZES – We warned earlier this morning that the GOP remains unpopular, and must be more than an opposition party to become triumphant.  Now comes evidence that the Republican kamikazes are at work, trying to make the party as unattractive as possible.  At this they are expert.  From The Hill:

House Republicans in line to chair important committees want less-stringent earmark spending rules next year, when they hope to be in control of the chamber.

Senior Republicans are pushing for a policy that would allow earmarks, the provisions lawmakers insert in spending bills to fund projects in their districts, but would make the process more transparent. House GOP leaders imposed a temporary moratorium on all earmarks in March in a bid to demonstrate fiscal discipline in an election year.

That moratorium ends at the end of the year, when a new policy will be put in place, said Rep. John Mica (R-Fla.), ranking member on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.
“It is just a moratorium, it’s not a total ban,” he said.

COMMENT:  You can be sure that the Democratic National Committee is on this story already, and is poised to portray the GOP as the party of special interests and pork barrel spending. 

Fellas, can't you wait 'til after the election to go back to hackery? 

This is why a new "contract with America" is needed, and one that will clearly place the GOP on the side of congressional reform, not the side of "business as usual."  Anyone listening?

May 20, 2010     Permalink

TURNAROUND? – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  There are conflicting reports on how the United States will address the crisis brewing in Korea, one of the most volatile places on Earth.  From The New York Times:

WASHINGTON — South Korea’s formal accusation that a North Korean torpedo sank one of its warships, killing 46 sailors, will set off a diplomatic drumbeat to punish North Korea, backed by the United States and other nations, which could end up in the United Nations Security Council.

On Thursday morning in Seoul, the South Korean government presented forensic evidence, including part of a torpedo propeller with what investigators believe is a North Korean serial number.

They said it proved that the underwater explosion that shattered the 1,200-ton corvette, the Cheonan, in March near a disputed sea border with the North was caused by the detonation of a torpedo.

On Monday, South Korea is expected to push for the case to be referred to the United Nations, and the United States plans to back Seoul “strongly and unequivocally,” according to Obama administration officials.

The investigation “points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that North Korea was responsible for this attack,” the White House said in a statement after the report was released in Seoul. “This act of aggression is one more instance of North Korea’s unacceptable behavior and defiance of international law.”

COMMENT:  Hold on, hold on.  That sounds very good.  We will back our ally "strongly and unequivocally." 

But just yesterday, at an off-the-record briefing, a former high official of the U.S. Government told a group of us that the facts are otherwise – that the United States is trying to restrain the South Koreans, and wants them to shove this incident under the rug so we can go back to more talking with the North. 

I'd watch this one with two eyes, to see what the U.S. really does.  Backing our allies hasn't been a priority of this administration, to put it mildly.  And the lefties in the Obama camp have little use for a vibrant, successful country like South Korea.  We're talking a good game, and that kind of talk may be prominent before the midterms, just to assure the American voters that there's a real president in the White House.  It's after the election that I worry about.

May 20, 2010     Permalink

OH, THERE'S THAT PROBLEM, ISN'T THERE? – AT 8:40 A.M. ET:  Just when the administration thought it could devote increasing resources to waging war against the foreign nation of Arizona, some statistics got in the way.  From Fox:

WASHINGTON -- The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week by the largest amount in three months. The big surge was a setback to hopes that layoffs were declining.

The Labor Department says that applications for unemployment benefits rose to 471,000 last week, up by 25,000 from the previous week. It was the first increase in five weeks and the biggest jump since a gain of 40,000 in February.

The forecast had been for claims to fall by around 4,000 from the previous week. The unexpectedly large rise in new claims underscored that even though the economy is growing, improvements in the labor market are coming in fits and starts.

COMMENT:  This is not good, for the country or for the president.  And yet, it reflects what people are observing "out there."  The unemployment crisis isn't being solved.  In fact, it really isn't being addressed.  Should the unemployment rate go above 10 percent, which means an underemployment rate that is much higher, it could have a devastating psychological impact on the nation, and on the upcoming elections.

May 20, 2010     Permalink

GET IT RIGHT – AT 8:25 A.M. ET:  One of the constant themes of pundits since Tuesday's voting is the condition of the Republican Party.  That condition is unstable.

It may well be that momentum alone will propel the party to victory in November, even taking over both houses of Congress.  But the fact is, and it is confirmed in every poll, that the GOP is unpopular.  Its message is incoherent, it often appears disorganized, and some of its new, leading personalities – like Rand Paul – are what the Brits call "nutters." 

The American people increasingly don't like the Obama administration or its program.  The opportunity for the Republicans is golden.  And yet, what are they doing with that opportunity?  Instead of coming up with a coherent, attractive program, they're simply positioning themselves as the opposition.  "Vote for us because we're not as bad as the other guys" seems to be the theme.  This may work for a time, but there's a point where "no" becomes rather unexciting.

In addition, it's becoming obvious, just a year before the presidential sweepstakes of 2012 begin, that the Republicans do not have a particular strong stable of candidates who can take on Barack Obama.  The president may be failing, but so was Bill Clinton before he was reelected decisively in 1996.  The Republican tendency simply to pick the next guy in line appears to be at work.  Mitt Romney is the frontrunner by default, something never said about Ronald Reagan.

We have a bit more than five months to go before the election.  You may be sure that the White House is in overdrive trying to come up with ways to mitigate the expected damage to Democrats in Congress.  At least they're doing something, and don't be shocked if they start doing it very well.

We have work to do, and we can't leave it to the tea partiers.

May 20, 2010    Permalink